We hear much about consumer confidence. Have you ever thought of merchant confidence? The businesses that produce the jobs of Main Street and keep local economies humming are very important. We think perhaps too big at times. That's easy to do. The media has much to do with that attitude.
The MerchantCircle Merchant Confidence Index Survey was released for Q2 back in June and I wanted to share these results. I just discovered this blog entry.
A summary of mine has respondents seeing hiring go up just a bit and overall revenues to remain mostly the same. My "instant look" saw confidence vastly unchanged. These merchants are positive. They frankly are to be commended for their determination and bright outlook.
Most survey respondents did NOT use Facebook ads. This was a surprise to me. Since the survey was responded to online by merchants who are Internet active, as I'll call them, I would have guessed that they were using Facebook ads. The Social Media promotional folks have me thinking that businesses are running with Social Media resources constantly. I am in a re-think on this subject. Most respondents did NOT get new customers with Facebook ads. Has Social Media got us thinking "too big" and not thinking of details that keep business going?
Friday, October 7, 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
social security not secure
The baby boomer generation - those born in the years following World War II up to about 1957 - comprises an estimated 77 million Americans. Those boomers are just starting to hit the traditional retirement age, with a major surge still to come over the next 15 years.
The country is ill-equipped to deal with this influx of people onto the Social Security rolls. It's not ready for the Medicare hit either. Back in 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree. The system was well-funded by that metric. Today, there are only about 3 workers per retiree.
Social Security, in fact, is even more troubled than the calculation suggests. That's because everything you are paying into the Social Security system now as a worker is being borrowed to pay down the massive U.S. budget deficit. Yes, it's true.
When we here we are borrowing an unbelievable 40 percent of our federal government's daily expenditure, that's glossing over a key point. About half of our tax revenue now comes from Social Security taxes! Around 50 percent of Americans pay no income tax, but they do pay Social Security tax. Take away Social Security tax, then the federal government is actually borrowing about 70 percent of our current expenditures.
Social Security is not a pension plan. It is a transfer payment. That transfer payment will be under extreme pressure when we no longer borrow and print without spurring very high, unsustainable inflation. When that day comes comes, Social Security transfer payments will have to decrease. Instead of everyone getting a check, the program will become means tested.
Social Security will become a welfare payment. If you really need welfare, you will receive some level of Social Security. Consider all that money you paid into the system as a tax on your earnings.
Don't count Social Security as part of your retirement savings. It quite likely won't be there for anyone who have enough to be over the means-tested threshold. It will be nothing more than a safety net, not a savings that provides income.
The country is ill-equipped to deal with this influx of people onto the Social Security rolls. It's not ready for the Medicare hit either. Back in 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree. The system was well-funded by that metric. Today, there are only about 3 workers per retiree.
Social Security, in fact, is even more troubled than the calculation suggests. That's because everything you are paying into the Social Security system now as a worker is being borrowed to pay down the massive U.S. budget deficit. Yes, it's true.
When we here we are borrowing an unbelievable 40 percent of our federal government's daily expenditure, that's glossing over a key point. About half of our tax revenue now comes from Social Security taxes! Around 50 percent of Americans pay no income tax, but they do pay Social Security tax. Take away Social Security tax, then the federal government is actually borrowing about 70 percent of our current expenditures.
Social Security is not a pension plan. It is a transfer payment. That transfer payment will be under extreme pressure when we no longer borrow and print without spurring very high, unsustainable inflation. When that day comes comes, Social Security transfer payments will have to decrease. Instead of everyone getting a check, the program will become means tested.
Social Security will become a welfare payment. If you really need welfare, you will receive some level of Social Security. Consider all that money you paid into the system as a tax on your earnings.
Don't count Social Security as part of your retirement savings. It quite likely won't be there for anyone who have enough to be over the means-tested threshold. It will be nothing more than a safety net, not a savings that provides income.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
let's become conservatives
Ever ask yourself what conservative pieces make up the entire puzzle? I feel lately we don't ask or ask enough. With a new campaign cycle here for the 2012 general election, perhaps we should go back and examine what conservatism is and what it should remain and become. Throughout the course of American history we have moved forward and brought the entire world together to further positive progress toward growth. Not all countries have followed our lead or have stayed the conservative course we have charted. They might have started and went back to the old ways or never became part of the move forward. Not everyone is going to follow our lead. One of conservatism's goals should be all inclusive. To allow everyone who wants to be part of the movement to be part of the movement. Have we allowed that and have we stayed our own course?
Here we have failed. Since the cultural conservative movement took shape in the early 1960's, there has been a group of gatekeepers that define who and who can't "come in" and be part of the process. That process I'm concerned with has a summit, and that is the ballot box. When it comes to getting votes we have done so much and became better in getting more votes. That's good..... but once conservatives are elected the sheets of music that got us ballot box victories are left out of the performance. Not always... but granted, we are ignoring a formula to success. The gatekeepers became stronger and the definitions changed. Fewer people became part of the process and our performance faltered.
One item is the issue of spending taxpayer money. First, let's start calling taxpayer money taxpayer money. That's where it comes from and that's what it is. And the goods and services taxpayer money buys remains the taxpayers'. Let's hear more about taxpayer money.
Second, let's get more taxpayers. In the United States we have less people paying taxes than we did, say... ten years ago. That is putting more strain on those who pay taxes. How much of a strain can taxpayers take? I don't want to find out. Let's get more taxpayers by unleashing our free enterprise system. Government has put more and more restrictions on that system and it isn't working properly. There are too many obstacles.
With that in mind, let's define what our free enterprise system is. Let's call it capitalism. How's that for conservatism? A big step is getting back to basics, those basics which made us great. If we truly recognize capitalism as our economic system, we are conservatives.
My "new" definition of conservatism declares capitalism can not exist without democracy and democracy can not exist without capitalism.
Here we have failed. Since the cultural conservative movement took shape in the early 1960's, there has been a group of gatekeepers that define who and who can't "come in" and be part of the process. That process I'm concerned with has a summit, and that is the ballot box. When it comes to getting votes we have done so much and became better in getting more votes. That's good..... but once conservatives are elected the sheets of music that got us ballot box victories are left out of the performance. Not always... but granted, we are ignoring a formula to success. The gatekeepers became stronger and the definitions changed. Fewer people became part of the process and our performance faltered.
One item is the issue of spending taxpayer money. First, let's start calling taxpayer money taxpayer money. That's where it comes from and that's what it is. And the goods and services taxpayer money buys remains the taxpayers'. Let's hear more about taxpayer money.
Second, let's get more taxpayers. In the United States we have less people paying taxes than we did, say... ten years ago. That is putting more strain on those who pay taxes. How much of a strain can taxpayers take? I don't want to find out. Let's get more taxpayers by unleashing our free enterprise system. Government has put more and more restrictions on that system and it isn't working properly. There are too many obstacles.
With that in mind, let's define what our free enterprise system is. Let's call it capitalism. How's that for conservatism? A big step is getting back to basics, those basics which made us great. If we truly recognize capitalism as our economic system, we are conservatives.
My "new" definition of conservatism declares capitalism can not exist without democracy and democracy can not exist without capitalism.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
regulations overdone
Since the new OSHA administration took over, there has been a shift toward stronger enforcement.
More staff has been added and policies have been changed. Fines have been higher. Are businesses being over regulated? Has regulation gone so far as to hamper the construction business?
What is OSHA really up to? In the past, OSHA only looked back 3 years when determining a "repeat" violation - which carries a higher penalty - had occurred. This window has increased to 5 years. This also creates tougher criteria for penalty reductions based on good history. Employers need to have a good track record for longer periods of time (5 years vs. 3 years) to be eligible for 10% penalty reductions based on history.
The average fine for serious violations will rise by $2000 - $3000 as a result of enforcement policy changes. OSHA is also asking Congress to pass legislation, the Protecting America's Workers Act, that would raise maximum penalties even further, up to $250,000 for certain violations. Even record keeping requirements are being cited at an increased rate with tougher penalties.
OSHA has launched an enforcement program geared toward what the agency calls "severe violators". Known as the Severe Violator Enforcement Program or SVEP, it focuses on OSHA enforcement resources on "recalcitrant" employers who fail to meet their obligations under the OSH Act. This means more inspections, more follow-up inspections, and more intense examination of employer's history to assess if there are systematic problems that would trigger more mandatory inspections.
The enforcement figures are in. OSHA has a $1.1 billion budget, $87 million in record breaking fines, and 169 new inspectors. To borrow from Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis' words, OSHA is acting like a "sheriff" now.
Is this too much? I'm not saying to rid ourselves of regulations entirely, but this seems to me as way too much regulation that can actually hamper productivity. The best regulator is the free enterprise system. If a company has a history of safety violations are they really doing well in business? Most likely not. They would continually have to "back up" to correct problems instead of moving forward. This would make projects come in over budget and over time. Hence a company with that kind of history wouldn't stay in business very long.
Over regulation isn't part of the capitalist model. Business is self-regulated. Regulated by what? Profit. To make more money, business has to run and run well. Business moves forward and more inspections don't allow for that. Businesses will pass on their added costs to the customer. That's more money out-of-pocket for you and me.
Congress has to examine the Protecting America's Workers Act before voting on it. Also other OSHA laws need to be inspected and if they are outdated, they have to be taken off the books. Regulation is need, but only to a point. Over regulation stops productivity.
More staff has been added and policies have been changed. Fines have been higher. Are businesses being over regulated? Has regulation gone so far as to hamper the construction business?
What is OSHA really up to? In the past, OSHA only looked back 3 years when determining a "repeat" violation - which carries a higher penalty - had occurred. This window has increased to 5 years. This also creates tougher criteria for penalty reductions based on good history. Employers need to have a good track record for longer periods of time (5 years vs. 3 years) to be eligible for 10% penalty reductions based on history.
The average fine for serious violations will rise by $2000 - $3000 as a result of enforcement policy changes. OSHA is also asking Congress to pass legislation, the Protecting America's Workers Act, that would raise maximum penalties even further, up to $250,000 for certain violations. Even record keeping requirements are being cited at an increased rate with tougher penalties.
OSHA has launched an enforcement program geared toward what the agency calls "severe violators". Known as the Severe Violator Enforcement Program or SVEP, it focuses on OSHA enforcement resources on "recalcitrant" employers who fail to meet their obligations under the OSH Act. This means more inspections, more follow-up inspections, and more intense examination of employer's history to assess if there are systematic problems that would trigger more mandatory inspections.
The enforcement figures are in. OSHA has a $1.1 billion budget, $87 million in record breaking fines, and 169 new inspectors. To borrow from Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis' words, OSHA is acting like a "sheriff" now.
Is this too much? I'm not saying to rid ourselves of regulations entirely, but this seems to me as way too much regulation that can actually hamper productivity. The best regulator is the free enterprise system. If a company has a history of safety violations are they really doing well in business? Most likely not. They would continually have to "back up" to correct problems instead of moving forward. This would make projects come in over budget and over time. Hence a company with that kind of history wouldn't stay in business very long.
Over regulation isn't part of the capitalist model. Business is self-regulated. Regulated by what? Profit. To make more money, business has to run and run well. Business moves forward and more inspections don't allow for that. Businesses will pass on their added costs to the customer. That's more money out-of-pocket for you and me.
Congress has to examine the Protecting America's Workers Act before voting on it. Also other OSHA laws need to be inspected and if they are outdated, they have to be taken off the books. Regulation is need, but only to a point. Over regulation stops productivity.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
oh oh
The unemployment rate in Illinois rose for three months in a row. As of July, the rate is at 9.5 percent. Since the record tax increases were passed, the jobless numbers have rose in Illinois. Since January 2011 89,000 jobs have been lost in Illinois. This according to the Department of Labor.
This trend did not start overnight. This has been a trend in the works since 2001. Illinois government has not tried to end the trend in lost jobs. Instead Illinois governmental leadership did just about the opposite. Increased spending, which meant a wave of massive fund sweeping, put a tremendous strain on the state treasury. In response, tax increases were proposed and passed. Those increases couldn't keep up because the spending far outweighed the revenues. Nothing was done in 2002 or 2003 when the problems could have been headed off at the pass. In the meantime the very function of state government was put in jeopardy. Needed funding to school districts and local government was delayed putting more of a strain on those entities.
What has been proposed by Governor Quinn is more borrowing in the form of another bond issue. If this idea continues, the spending has to be capped. The backlog of unpaid bills has to be addressed and the pension problem needs leadership. We as Illinois citizens must be vigilant in the pursuit of better fiscal policy. This means no more new programs and cutting programs which have outlived their usefulness.
This trend did not start overnight. This has been a trend in the works since 2001. Illinois government has not tried to end the trend in lost jobs. Instead Illinois governmental leadership did just about the opposite. Increased spending, which meant a wave of massive fund sweeping, put a tremendous strain on the state treasury. In response, tax increases were proposed and passed. Those increases couldn't keep up because the spending far outweighed the revenues. Nothing was done in 2002 or 2003 when the problems could have been headed off at the pass. In the meantime the very function of state government was put in jeopardy. Needed funding to school districts and local government was delayed putting more of a strain on those entities.
What has been proposed by Governor Quinn is more borrowing in the form of another bond issue. If this idea continues, the spending has to be capped. The backlog of unpaid bills has to be addressed and the pension problem needs leadership. We as Illinois citizens must be vigilant in the pursuit of better fiscal policy. This means no more new programs and cutting programs which have outlived their usefulness.
Monday, August 22, 2011
illinois republican convention 2012
The Illinois Republican Party will hold its 2012 State Convention at Tinley Park’s newly expanded convention center June 8 and 9, officials announced Monday, August 22, 2011.
The Tinley Park Convention Center’s prime location is near Interstates 80 and 57. Tinley Park Mayor Ed Zabrocki said statewide events that attract visitors to the village of about 56,000 is exactly what local officials were hoping for when they approved the project.
The GOP will showcase the Republican Presidential candidate and state representative and state senate candidates along with the unveiling of the state platform. State Treasurer Dan Rutherford and State Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka, the Illinois Republican State officials will also be on hand.
Friday, August 19, 2011
a dose of reaganism
I was watching Lawrence Kudlow's show on CNBC and he mentioned that the country needs a dose of Reaganism. I agree, and for the record Mr. Kudlow could be biased, he was President Reagan's senior domestic economic adviser for just over six years. So Mr. Kudlow served President Reagan, he was "in the room" when President Reagan made most of his important economic decisions. Mr. Reagan had a variety of business and market leaders at his disposal and called upon them to aid in his decision making. Even President Carter did this. Unfortunately, President Carter made decisions that were contrary to the advise he was getting. But I think you get the point.
Has President Obama brought in the best and the brightest to seek their advise and guidance in dealing with this economic crisis? Well, I'll let you answer that in your own way. But if he hasn't he needs to start. His decision that led to QE2, which basically printed trillions of dollars, but created no jobs, was not a good one. In the President's defense, he should have slowed the printing press down, but I have to wonder if he received the proper suggestions to do so. He still had the majority of the Democrats in the U.S. House and the Senate, when QE2 proposals were made. But QE2 failed as far as job creation goes. The Republicans got the House back and the President's cap and trade was unveiled by the Republicans as bad policy. The Republicans cut, cap and balance bill proposed in the House and passed, was not called for a vote in the Senate, much to the chagrin of "a few" Republican senators led by John McCain.
So that brings us to the point where we are now. No jobs bill, but the President has said one is coming after Labor Day during his recent bus tour. What the President needs now is a political miracle. He needs to call in the best and the brightest to help forge a jobs bill. He has just a small amount of time. President Reagan put a proactive plan together for America, not a reactive one. Now is the time, but I get the feeling that time is wasting away, as Lawrence Kudlow brought up.
Has President Obama brought in the best and the brightest to seek their advise and guidance in dealing with this economic crisis? Well, I'll let you answer that in your own way. But if he hasn't he needs to start. His decision that led to QE2, which basically printed trillions of dollars, but created no jobs, was not a good one. In the President's defense, he should have slowed the printing press down, but I have to wonder if he received the proper suggestions to do so. He still had the majority of the Democrats in the U.S. House and the Senate, when QE2 proposals were made. But QE2 failed as far as job creation goes. The Republicans got the House back and the President's cap and trade was unveiled by the Republicans as bad policy. The Republicans cut, cap and balance bill proposed in the House and passed, was not called for a vote in the Senate, much to the chagrin of "a few" Republican senators led by John McCain.
So that brings us to the point where we are now. No jobs bill, but the President has said one is coming after Labor Day during his recent bus tour. What the President needs now is a political miracle. He needs to call in the best and the brightest to help forge a jobs bill. He has just a small amount of time. President Reagan put a proactive plan together for America, not a reactive one. Now is the time, but I get the feeling that time is wasting away, as Lawrence Kudlow brought up.
restructured borrowing
State Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka, Treasurer Dan Rutherford, Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno and House Minority Leader Tom Cross say it’s time Illinois paid its bills with the revenue it generates.
Governor Quinn has mentioned borrowing more money so Illinois can pay its bills. This has the called the "restructuring" of debt by Governor Quinn. Basically this means borrowing more money to pay the back log of bills and to address the pension crisis. The only, but major problem is that's its far too expensive to borrow money. Illinois’ credit rating has sunk to 49th place by ratings companies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, and the state is now dead last in the view of Moody’s.
Many efforts to implement more reforms and deeper budget cuts have been ignored or blocked by the majority party (Democrat) in Springfield. Many reforms have been introduced and held up including additional Medicaid and pension reforms which could save the state billions of dollars.
We have put forward a proposal that gives current employees options in an effort to stabilize our pension systems going forward. We have been meeting with interested parties this summer and hope to vote on a final product as soon as possible,” said Cross.
The four officials continue to offer to meet with Democrats at any time to find solutions.
Governor Quinn has mentioned borrowing more money so Illinois can pay its bills. This has the called the "restructuring" of debt by Governor Quinn. Basically this means borrowing more money to pay the back log of bills and to address the pension crisis. The only, but major problem is that's its far too expensive to borrow money. Illinois’ credit rating has sunk to 49th place by ratings companies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, and the state is now dead last in the view of Moody’s.
Many efforts to implement more reforms and deeper budget cuts have been ignored or blocked by the majority party (Democrat) in Springfield. Many reforms have been introduced and held up including additional Medicaid and pension reforms which could save the state billions of dollars.
We have put forward a proposal that gives current employees options in an effort to stabilize our pension systems going forward. We have been meeting with interested parties this summer and hope to vote on a final product as soon as possible,” said Cross.
The four officials continue to offer to meet with Democrats at any time to find solutions.
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